Apologies to those who were waiting to see how I'd follow up my 3-0 debut in Week 2. Truth is, I just forgot all about it. But fear not, your money is once again safe because I'm here to instruct you where to wager it.
Remember, don't go for parlays or teasers -- they're dangerous. And don't bet on every game -- that's stupid. Don't try to be a hero; bet a reasonable amount of money on a small handful of games you're very confident about, double your money, and be happy. It'll pay off in the end. Onto the picks (as always, lines are taken from Sportsbook.com.
Jaguars (+7) over COLTS: I put money on this game on Wednesday because I was shocked the spread was at 7 and was certain it would drop after Jaguars hype started building coming off the Monday night game. But Friday is here, and it's still at 7. Peyton Manning has a lot of trouble with aggressive, complex, hybrid defenses like the Jaguars'. Remember last year, the Colts had to struggle to a 10-3 win early in the year against the Jags. The Colts offensive line has looked anything but stellar lately, and the Jaguars will probably fluster Manning. The combo of Addai and Rhodes should find about zero room to run. Meanwhile, the Jags' offense is gaining confidence and getting better. The addition of Marcedes Lewis for a full game should benefit Byron Leftwich and I think the Jags are the one team that will give the Colts fits all year long.
Giants (+3.5) over SEAHAWKS: Last weeks' Giants comeback was one of those games that send teams on a run. Eli Manning needed to prove that he's growing into a mature quarterback and that he deserves a spot among the game's best, and he certainly made a big statement last week. That shouldn't be underrated. The Giants have the deepest offense in the NFC, although their defense isn't as stout as it was expected to be. The Seahawks have had problems gelling on offense, Shaun Alexander has yet to get going, and it typically takes the Seahawks until October before they're running at full steam. The Giants might have caught the Hawks at a good time. Plus, you know they're itching for revenge after last year's Seattle disaster. The Seahawks are a team on the decline, the Giants are headed in the opposite direction.
VIKINGS (+3) over Bears: When will it strike midnight for Rex Grossman? I fear, this is the week he drops back to reality. I'm up on Grossman for the season, actually, I just don't think he's going to be as good as he's been the last two weeks. The Vikings have a really strong defensive line and an underrated secondary that should keep the Bears' offense at bay. On offense, the Vikings will use the best line in the league to get Chester Taylor hunks of yards on the ground and eat up the clock. Everyone is on the Bears' Super Bowl bandwagon right now, but the Vikings are truly a team that can compete with them for the division. Brad Johnson will do just enough this game to win.